### MATLAB Bayesian regression software updated

Posted by emakalic in Programming, Statistics on June 23, 2017

We have updated *bayesreg, *a MATLAB toolbox that implements Bayesian linear and logistic regression with sparsity-inducing priors, to version 1.3. The new version can be downloaded here.

Version 1.3 includes the following changes:

- Tidied up the summary display to switch between scientific and normal notation depending

on size of numbers in table - Fixed the summary banner to adjust to the size of the table
- Added support for MATLAB tables
- Code now accepts either X/y as matrix/vector, or table/string name of variable to use as table

- Added support for categorical predictors
- These are now either specified using ‘catvars’ option for matrix inputs, or automatically determined from the contents of the table

- Removed the dependency of br_summary() on X and y
- Consolidated all likelihood functions into a single br_regnlike() function that is vectorized using bsxfun
- Added a br_predict function to produce predictions over data given design matrices
- Checks input design matrix/table against structure of training data
- Automatically handles categorical expansions as required
- Produces credible intervals if requested
- Produces prediction statistics if targets are supplied

- Updated and improved the example scripts
- Added initial internal code structures required for grouping variables and variable expansions
- Fix bug in computation of R2

### Bayesian penalized regression with continuous shrinkage prior densities

Posted by emakalic in Statistics on December 20, 2016

We have implemented a new MATLAB toolbox for Bayesian regression. The toolbox features Bayesian linear regression with Gaussian or heavy-tailed error models and Bayesian logistic regression with ridge, lasso, horseshoe and horseshoe+ estimators. Two heavy-tailed error models are supported in linear regression: Laplace and Student t distribution errors. The toolbox is very efficient and can be used with high-dimensional data. This toolbox uses the C/C++ PolyaGamma sampler written by Jesse Windle.

Version 1.1 of the MATLAB toolbox can be downloaded from here. Please see “examples_bayesreg.m” for examples on how to use the toolbox, or type “help bayesreg” within MATLAB.

An R version of this toolbox is now available on CRAN. To install the R package, type “install.packages(“bayesreg”)” within R.

To cite this toolbox:

- Makalic E. & Schmidt, D. F.

High-Dimensional Bayesian Regularised Regression with the BayesReg Package

arXiv:1611.06649 [stat.CO], 2016

Updates:

(23/01): Updated the bayesreg code to version 1.2. This version implements Zellner’s g-prior for linear and logistic regression. The g-prior only works with full rank matrices. The examples in “examples_bayesreg.m” have been updated to include a g-prior example.

(17/01): Updated the bayesreg code to version 1.1. The display code is now in a separate “summary()” function so that it can be used many times on the same data and sampling results. We have updated “examples_bayesreg.m” to include examples of the new “summary()” function.

### Australian Rules Football and ELO Ratings

The ELO rating system is widely used in professional individual and team sports to compute relative rankings of teams or individuals. I had some free time on the weekend and wrote a fairly simple MATLAB script to compute the ELO rating for each team in the Australian Rules Football League (AFL). I used the data files from AFL Tables as input to the MATLAB code. The table below lists all the ELO ratings as well as some basic statistics, such as the total number of wins, losses and draws for each team.

TEAM | ELO | WINS | LOSSES | DRAWS | TOTAL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | Hawthorn | 1475 | 869 | 951 | 10 | 1830 |

2 | Geelong | 1469 | 1224 | 1042 | 21 | 2287 |

3 | Collingwood | 1468 | 1460 | 910 | 26 | 2396 |

4 | Sydney | 1428 | 1061 | 1199 | 23 | 2283 |

5 | West Coast | 1360 | 339 | 269 | 5 | 613 |

6 | Brisbane Bears | 1319 | 72 | 148 | 2 | 222 |

7 | Adelaide | 1316 | 269 | 241 | 1 | 511 |

8 | St Kilda | 1311 | 877 | 1338 | 25 | 2240 |

9 | North Melbourne | 1293 | 803 | 1005 | 17 | 1825 |

10 | Fremantle | 1292 | 168 | 236 | 0 | 404 |

11 | Carlton | 1253 | 1385 | 939 | 33 | 2357 |

12 | Essendon | 1194 | 1315 | 973 | 34 | 2322 |

13 | Richmond | 1170 | 1058 | 1035 | 22 | 2115 |

14 | Brisbane Lions | 1147 | 192 | 175 | 6 | 373 |

15 | Western Bulldogs | 1099 | 803 | 976 | 22 | 1801 |

16 | Melbourne | 1032 | 1034 | 1209 | 21 | 2264 |

17 | Port Adelaide | 1032 | 183 | 181 | 5 | 369 |

18 | GW Sydney | 1016 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 22 |

19 | Gold Coast | 992 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 44 |

20 | Fitzroy | 871 | 869 | 1034 | 25 | 1928 |

21 | University | 781 | 27 | 97 | 2 | 126 |

Note:

- I used the results of all 14,166 games played in the VFL/AFL since 1897 to create the table.
- The ranking scores of the top three teams are really close, but Hawthorn has edged out Collingwood and Geelong.
- The ELO of each team was initialised to 1200; the only exception to this rule were the Brisbane Lions which inherited the final ELO score from the Brisbane Bears. This seemed reasonable given the details of the “merger” between the Brisbane Bears and Fitzroy Lions.
- The team University withdrew from the competition for World War 1 and never came back.
- All ratings were updated using a constant K-factor of 32.
- My MATLAB script and the data file used to create this table are freely available for download here.

It would be of interest to use this data for prediction of the AFL 2013 season, perhaps using a methodology similar to the ELO++ work.

### Linear algebra in C/C++ using Eigen

Posted by emakalic in Linear algebra on May 11, 2012

I’ve recently started using the free, open-source library Eigen for linear algebra routines in C/C++. The library is absolutely fantastic in terms of perfomance and functionality, however, as is sometimes the case with open-source software, the API documentation is somewhat lacking. If I get some time in the future I hope to contribute a few articles to the online documentation. Here is an example of what I mean.

Suppose you want to do a QR decomposition of a matrix X. There are three classes that can do this for you, one of which is ColPivHouseholderQR, and you may write something like

1 2 | // perform a QR decomposition of the [n x p] X matrix; where n > p Eigen::ColPivHouseholderQR< Eigen::MatrixXd > qr = X.colPivHouseholderQr(); |

Seems fairly straightforward, right? But, how do we get Q and R? If we look at the online documentation for ColPivHouseholderQR, we find a public method called matrixQR() which seems to return a reference to a matrix related to Q and R in some fashion. The documentation doesn’t state anything about how to get Q and R from the returned matrix. It turns out, that the matrix returned by matrixQR() contains both Q and R, with R occupying the ‘top’ block and Q the ‘bottom’ block. Thus, to get, say, R we need to use something like

1 2 3 4 | // perform a QR decomposition of the [n x p] X matrix; where n > p Eigen::ColPivHouseholderQR< Eigen::MatrixXd > qr = X.colPivHouseholderQr(); Eigen::Matrix<double,p,p> R; R = qr.matrixQR().topRightCorner(p,p).triangularView<Eigen::Upper>(); // R matrix |

Here, topRightCorner() extracts the matrix of interest and triangularView

It didn’t take too long to figure out how QR works in Eigen. After discovering the solution I found a post on the Eigen forum that describes a similar solution to the aforementioned. I urge anyone who uses Eigen to contribute code and documentation to the project, if possible. It really is a fantastic open-source library and equals and surpasses many other commercial linear algebra packages in both performance and quality.

### Analysing cancer data with a supercomputer

Yours truly has recently appeared in an article published in the local newspaper, The Age. The article discusses our NHMRC grant to use the IBM Blue Gene/P supercomputer for processing and analysis of SNP data. Unfortunately, I didn’t get a chance to proof read the story and ended up being referred to as a “computer whiz” and a talented “games programmer”. Oh well, any publicity is good publicity, right?

### Fisher Information in Single Factor Analysis

Posted by emakalic in Linear algebra, Statistics on February 7, 2012

The single factor analysis model for data is

where , is an i.i.d. zero-mean multivariate Gaussian random variable with a symmetric, positive definite variance-covariance matrix ; that is, for all . It is thus assumed that each data vector follows a -variate Gaussian distribution with moments

The aim of single factor analysis is to estimate the unknown factor scores , the mean , the variance-covariance matrix and the factor loadings .

I’ve written this note to show how one may derive the Fisher information for the single factor model. This turns out to be a fairly involved task requiring a lot of linear algebra and matrix differential calculus identities. I’ve uploaded a document describing all the necessary mathematical steps to the Publications section. Anyone interested in matrix differential calculus and linear algebra should find it useful.

### Computing *p*-values for large Z scores in MATLAB

Posted by emakalic in Statistics on November 29, 2011

I recently found a little trick for computing two-sided *p*-values in MATLAB when given a large Z score. The obvious approach is to use the *normcdf(.)* function with something like this

1 2 | z=1.96; 2*(1-normcdf(z)) |

However, the above only works for relatively small z, in the range z < 10. In order to get *p*-values for z as large as 30, one should instead run

1 2 | z=1.96; 2*normcdf(-abs(z)) |

For those using R, the above can be accomplished by running:

1 2 | z <- 1.96 2*pnorm(z,lower.tail=F) |

### Sampling from a k-nomial distribution with Boost

Posted by emakalic in Programming on October 18, 2011

Boost is free, open source and peer-reviewed set of C++ libraries that is used in academic as well as commercial environments. I have recently used the Boost random number generation and special mathematical functions library for a project to detect gene-gene interactions in breast cancer. Unfortunately, the Boost random number generation library dose not currently include the k-nomial distribution, which is something I needed for the project. Here is a simple implementation I ended up with in the hope that it may be useful to other people. Note, my implementation is definitelly not optimal and is inefficient for generating large samples.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 | #include <cassert> #include <boost/random/mersenne_twister.hpp> #include <boost/random/discrete_distribution.hpp> boost::mt19937 rng; // random number generator boost::random::uniform_01<double> dist; /* * Generate n samples from a k-nomial distribution. * Input: * tab - vector of length k to store the counts; * - tab[j] \in [0, n] for all j=1,...,k * - sum_{j=0}^k tab[j] = n * p - the probability vector of length k * - does not assume p(0)+p(1)+...+p(k)=1; * k - k-nomial (k>1) * n - sample size */ void sample_knomial(unsigned int *tab, double *p, unsigned int k, unsigned int n) { assert(k>1); // set all k-cells to zero memset(tab,0,sizeof(unsigned int)*k); // normalise the probabilities double norm_factor=0.0; for(unsigned int j=0; j<k; j++) { assert(p[j] > 0); norm_factor += p[j]; } // pre-compute cumulative sums [p(0),p(0)+p(1),...,p(0)+p(1)+...+p(k-1)] // (could sort p prior to this) double *cumsum = new double[k]; cumsum[0]=p[0]/norm_factor; for(unsigned int j=1; j<k; j++) { cumsum[j] = cumsum[j-1] + p[j]/norm_factor; } // Generate n samples from a k-nomial with probabilities p_1,...,p_k unsigned int t = 0; double u = 0.0; for(unsigned int i=0; i<n; i++) { // Generate uniform u \in [0,1) u = dist(rng); // Determine in which of the k cells u falls for(t=0; u>cumsum[t]; t++); // Increment count for cell j tab[t]++; } // free memory delete[] cumsum; } |

### Computing the Hodges–Lehmann estimator

Posted by emakalic in Statistics on June 17, 2011

The Hodges–Lehmann estimator (HL) of the location parameter for samples of data is defined as the median of the averages of all data pairs. This set of all pairwise averages is usually referred to as the Walsh averages. The Hodges-Lehmann estimator has some excellent efficiency and robustness properties if the observed data is generated by a symmetric distribution.

Below is a simple C function to compute the HL estimator for a given array of observations.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 | // Comparison function needed for quicksort int compare (const void * a, const void * b) { const double *da = (const double *) a; const double *db = (const double *) b; return (*da > *db) - (*da < *db); } // Function to compute the Hodges-Lehmann estimator double hodgeslehmann(double *x, int n) { // store and compute Walsh averages unsigned int nw=n*(n+1)/2; double *walsh_avgs=(double*) malloc(sizeof(double)*nw); unsigned int k=0; for(unsigned int i=0; i<n; i++) { for(unsigned int j=i; j<n; j++) { walsh_avgs[k]=(x[i]+x[j])/2.0; k++; } } // sort the vector qsort(walsh_avgs,nw,sizeof(double),compare); // median of walsh averages double m=walsh_avgs[nw/2]; if(nw % 2 == 0) { m=((walsh_avgs[nw/2] + walsh_avgs[nw/2 - 1]) / 2.0); } // done free(walsh_avgs); return m; } |

I have also written a MATLAB driver function that allows the aforementioned C code to be executed within MATLAB, see the Software section to download this implementation. An efficient (pure) MATLAB implementation that avoids the use of nested *for* loops is a little bit tricky. Here is a simple (memmory intensive!) implementation that relies on the *ndgrid(.)* function. This code works reasonably well as long as the sample size is not too big.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 | function m=hodglehm_slow(x) %% Length of vector x=x(:); % make sure x is a column vector n=length(x); %% compute cartesian product [a,b]=ndgrid(x,x); %% Sum of all pairs A=triu((a+b)./2); %% Extract upper diagonal Ix=triu(true(n)); A=A(Ix); %% Compute median of averages m=median(A(:)); %% done return; |

We can get the standard error of the HL estimator in MATLAB by using the bootstrap:

1 2 3 4 5 6 | % Generate 50 observations from a Student-t distribution with 2 dof x=trnd(2,50,1); % Compute standard errors for the mean and HL estimators std(bootstrp(1000, @(a) mean(a), x)) std(bootstrp(1000, @(a) hodglehm_slow(a), x)) |